IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: 1986-2023

Abstract

Immigration of foreign populations can affect economic growth through two main channels: human capital and demographic shifts. However, Nigeria has consistently maintained a negative net migration rate over the past 4 decades. Thus, this study investigated the impact of international migration on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986 to 2023 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Regression technique. Results revealed that the net migration rate at level is positively related to economic growth in the short-run. However, one period lagged net migration rate is negatively and significantly related to economic growth in the short-run. Similarly, net migration rate appears to positively affect economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, the findings indicated that migrant remittances at level affect economic growth positively and significantly in the short-run. However, one period lagged migrant remittances is negatively related to economic growth in the short-run. Migrant remittances are positively related to growth in the long run. Furthermore, the estimated impact of labour force participation rate at level on growth is negative and significant in the short run. However, one period lagged labour force participation rate is significant and positively related to economic growth in the short-run. Similarly, labour force participation is positively related to growth in the long-run. The unemployment rate coefficient is negative and significant in the short run. However, the unemployment rate is negative and significantly related to growth in the long-run. Therefore, the Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment (FMLE) in collaboration with Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM) should introduce skills certification, microfinance schemes, and business incubation programs for returnee migrants, especially targeting their integration into the local labour market. Furthermore, the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NiDCOM) should establish a National Diaspora Investment Framework to create incentives such as tax rebates, risk guarantees, and matched funding programmes to channel migrant remittances into productive sectors like manufacturing, agribusiness, and technology. The Federal Ministry of Labour and Employment (FMLE) can boost labour force participation through inclusive economic policies. Specifically, the FMLE should implement gender-sensitive labour policies, expand childcare services, and introduce flexible working conditions to raise female labour force participation. The National Directorate of Employment (NDE) should design targeted youth employment and upskilling programmes by investing in vocational training, digital skills development and entrepreneurship support for youths and women in urban and rural areas