UTILIZING TIME SERIES MODELS AND MACHINE LEARNING FOR CPI FORECASTING IN THE PHILIPPINES

Abstract

Inflation is a pervasive economic challenge in many developing countries, including the Philippines. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds a pivotal role in shaping the nation's inflation dynamics. In the context of the Philippines, the CPI stands as a critical gauge, reflecting the average expenditures of households on essential goods and services. Inflation, characterized by a sustained increase in the general price levels of commodities and services, is influenced by a multitude of factors, encompassing monetary expansion, escalating production costs, and surges in demand for goods and services (Nopirin, 1987). To foster economic stability and make informed policy decisions, comprehending and effectively managing inflation through an in-depth analysis of the CPI becomes imperative