NAVIGATING UNCERTAINTY: A COMPREHENSIVE STUDY OF THE SOCIOECONOMIC RAMIFICATIONS OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, WITH A CASE STUDY OF INDIA

Abstract

This study examines the socioeconomic and political challenges faced by developing and highly populated countries, with a focus on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The study highlights the decline in economic growth, rise in unemployment, and increase in migration and suffering. Particularly, underdeveloped and highly populated countries, including India, China, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, have experienced the most severe consequences of the pandemic. Insufficient health infrastructure and ineffective governance have contributed to the failure in effectively addressing the pandemic's impact. Furthermore, the short-term direct effects of the current wave of the pandemic are expected to have medium and long-term indirect effects, including low economic growth, decreased productivity, low per capita income, limited employment opportunities, high inflation rates, widespread poverty, unplanned migration, hunger, malnutrition, famine, low living standards, and setbacks in achieving millennium development goals.

Developing and underdeveloped countries, characterized by a lack of industrial base, low GDP, and limited human development, face common challenges due to historical and geographical factors. The highly populated countries, such as China and India, account for a significant portion of the global population and are classified as developing countries. Additionally, Bangladesh, Brazil, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan also fall into this category and face various vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities include political instability, inefficient governance, high population growth rates, limited growth and development, lack of employment opportunities, low productivity, high unemployment and poverty rates, and associated issues such as high infant mortality rates, hunger, crime, unplanned migration, slum formation, environmental degradation, and low levels of education and healthcare.

These challenges and issues faced by highly populated developing countries have global implications and contribute to their vulnerability. The GDP per capita and Human Development Index (HDI) rankings of these countries reflect their low levels of development compared to other nations. Additionally, the Global Peace Index (GPI) ranks of these countries indicate their lower levels of peace and stability. Moreover, measures such as the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI), unemployment rates, and the number of people suffering from hunger in these countries are significantly higher compared to developed nations. The study emphasizes that ineffective planning processes over several decades have contributed to the vulnerability of these countries, and the recent pandemic has further exacerbated existing inequalities between nations.