Principles of an Optimal Mathematical Intervention in Psychology of Near-Miss in Problematic Gambling: Types and Effects

Abstract

The near-miss phenomenon has been a significant focus of research in the problem-gambling industry, with studies exploring its causes and effects. However, there has been less focus on the near-miss as a gaming phenomenon itself, particularly on the fallacious elements of the near-miss cognitive effects and the inadequate interpretation and representation of the elementary mathematical definition of the classical near-miss. This paper aims to address this gap by providing an optimal mathematical intervention in the psychology of near-miss in problematic gambling.

The paper argues that the unique features of games of chance, such as the pre-manipulation of award symbols to maximize the frequency of engineered near-misses, have contributed to the misunderstanding of the near-miss phenomenon. The study seeks to investigate how probabilistic reasoning occurs in exploratory learning conditions that are random in nature. The emphasis is on what learners with little knowledge of formal probability theories can do when coping with compound random circumstances in which opponents are offered to implement various probabilistic lines of reasoning.The research indicates that probabilistic reasoning takes shape through a contextualization mechanism, where cognitive behavior oscillates between contextual perceptions and reflections, the focal event, and new knowledge that comes into play. Students are shown to be able to formulate ideas of an underlying distribution of probability in the case of compound random phenomena before instruction. Geometrical and numerical considerations, as well as statements representing the concepts of the rule of large numbers, are discussed by the students.