International Research Journal of Accounting, Finance and Banking (IRJAFB)

CURRENCY DYNAMICS: EXPLORING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN SUDAN AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS

Authors

  • Sarah Ahmed Osman University of Khartoum, Khartoum, Sudan

Abstract

Exchange rates play a pivotal role in the global economy, measuring the value of one nation's currency against others. This valuation varies based on the exchange rate system in place. Fixed exchange rates are set by monetary authorities, while floating rates are determined by market forces of supply and demand. The significance of exchange rates is widely debated in the literature, primarily due to their influence on a country's international competitiveness and financial stability. Exchange rate stability, especially in developing countries, is a critical objective. A stable exchange rate attracts foreign investment, enhances productivity, promotes trade, and bolsters economic stability. Conversely, exchange rate instability hampers investment, disrupts resource allocation, discourages foreign capital inflows, fuels inflation, and worsens trade balances. Consequently, exchange rate determination and stability are of paramount interest to academics, policymakers, and market practitioners. Despite numerous theoretical models attempting to predict exchange rates, the subject remains contentious in international finance literature. It is widely agreed that exchange rate volatility reflects macroeconomic factors' fluctuation. Researchers focus on explaining exchange rate behavior concerning a set of macroeconomic fundamentals. These factors encompass income growth, inflation, interest rates, fiscal and current account balances, foreign exchange reserves, financial and trade openness, and the nature of capital flows, each varying by country.

Keywords:

Exchange rates, exchange rate determination, exchange rate stability, macroeconomic fundamentals, international finance

Published

2023-12-14

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Osman, S. A. (2023). CURRENCY DYNAMICS: EXPLORING EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN SUDAN AND THE INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS. International Research Journal of Accounting, Finance and Banking (IRJAFB), 14(12), 13–35. Retrieved from https://zapjournals.com/Journals/index.php/irjafb/article/view/1696

References

Abbas, Z., Khan, S. & Rizvi, S.T. (2011). Exchange Rates and Macroeconomic Fundamentals: Linear Regression and Cointegration Analysis on Emerging Asian Economies. International Review of Business Research Papers, 7 (3), 250-263.

Cevik, S., Harris, R. &Yilmaz, F. (2017). Soft power and exchange rate volatility. International Finance, ISSN 13670271, 2017, 20, (3), 271-288.

Cheung, Y., Chinn, M. &Pascual, A. (2005). Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?.Journal of international money and finance, 24 (7), 1150-1175.

Chong, L. & Tan, H. (2007). Macroeconomic factors of exchange rate volatility: Evidence from four neighboring ASEAN economies. Studies in Economics and Finance, ISSN 1086-7376, 10/2007, 24, (4) 266-285.

Dellas, H. &Tavlas, G. (2018). Milton Friedman and the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates and Monetary Rules. Cato Journal, 38, (2) 36-377.

Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of estimators for autocorrelated time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-31.

Dicky, D. & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.

Drine, I. &Rault, C. (2006). Learning about the long-run determinants of real exchange rates for developing countries: A panel data investigation. Contributions to Economic Analysis, 274, 307-325.

Dufrenot, G. &Égert B. (2005). Real Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe: What Scope for the Underlying Fundamentals?.Emerging Markets Finance and Trade,Vol. 41 (2), 41–59.

Effiong, E.L. (2014).Exchange rate dynamics and monetary fundamentals: A cointegrated SVAR approach for Nigeria. Global Business Review, 15 (2) 205-221.

Elbadawi, I. & Soto, R. (1997). Real exchange rates and macroeconomic adjustment in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries. Journal of African Economies, 6, (3), 74-120.

Friedman, M. (1953). The case for flexible exchange rates.Essays in positive economics. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.

Granger, C. (1969). Investigating causal relations by error-correction models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37 (3), 424-438.

Granger, C. (1988). Some recent developments in a concept of causality. Journal of Econometrics, 39, 199-211. E-view software statistics, (Version 9).

International Monetary Fund country Data, Sudan. (2000-2017). (Online)Available:https://www.at.imf.org/en/Countries/SDN.

Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamicsand Control, 12, 231-54.

Johansen, S. &Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, (2), 169-210.

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Co-integration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models.Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580.

Johansen, S. (1994). The role of the constant and linear terms in cointegration analysis of nonstationary variables. Econometric Review, 13, 205-30.

Khattak, N., Tariq, M. & Khan, J. (2012). Factors affecting nominal interest rate of Pakistan: An econometric investigation. Asian Economic and Financial Review, 2, (2), 421-428.

Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P., Schmidt, P. & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesisof stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.

Meese, R. &Rogoff, K. (1983). Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample?.Journal of International Economics, 14, 3–24.

Mirchandani, A. (2013). Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in India. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 3, (1), 172-179.

Morana, C. (2009). On the macroeconomic causes of exchange rate volatility. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 328–350.

Mpofu, T. (2016). The Determinants of Exchange Rate Volatility in South Africa. Working paper 604, ERSA, South Africa, 14 April.

Newey, W. &West. K., (1987). A simple Positive Semi-definite Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent CoverianceMatix. Econometrica, 55, 703-708.

Pantula, S. (1989). Testing for unit roots in time series data. Econometric Theory, 5 (2), 256-271.

Pesaran, M. & Shin, Y. (1998). Generalised impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models. Economic Letters, 58, 17-29.

Pesaran, M., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. (1996). Testing for the existence of a long-run relationship. DAE Working Paper, No. 9622, Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge.

Phillips, P. &Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a UnitRoot in Time Series Regression. Biometrica, 75, 335-346.

Proti, N. (2013). Exchange rate fluctuations-shock in Tanzania: An empirical analysis. Scholarly Journal of Business Administration, 3 (1), 12-19, available at: http:// www.scholarly-journals.com/SJBA.

Rajakaruna, H. (2017). An Investigation of Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Fluctuations in Sri Lanka. Journal of South Asian Studies, 5 (2), 101-115.

Raza, A. &Afshan, S. (2017). Determinants of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Revisited with Structural Break Testing.Global Business Review, 18 (4), 825-848.

Shin, Y. &Pesaran, M. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th century. Working paper, The RagnarFrish Centennial Symposium, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 371-413.

Tsen, W. (2011). The Real Exchange Rate Determination: An Empirical Investigation. International Review of Economics and Finance, 20, (4), 800–811.

White, H. (1980). A Heteroskedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48, 817-838.

Zakaria, M., Ahmed, E.&Iqbal, M.(2007). Nominal Exchange Rate Variability A Case Study of Pakistan. Journal of Economic Cooperation, 28, (1), 73-98.

Zalduendo, J. (2006). Determinants of Venezuela’s equilibrium real exchange rate. Working Paper /06/74, IMF Working Paper Series, available at: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ WP/Issues/2016/12/31/

Similar Articles

1 2 3 4 > >> 

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.