CLIMATE-DRIVEN CHANGES IN VEGETATION DYNAMICS: KHANTAI NURUU, MONGOLIA PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

Forests play a vital role in maintaining ecological balance and sustaining natural resources, yet the forests of Mongolia, covering 8% of its land area, are facing alarming decline due to an interplay of climate change-induced factors. This study addresses the pressing issue of declining forest cover by investigating the impact of climate change on Mongolia's forest ecosystems, with a focus on the Khantai mountain range. The study employs a multidisciplinary approach, integrating satellite remote sensing, multi-regression analysis, and simulation modeling to comprehensively assess the changes in forest dynamics.

Over the years, climate change-related factors, including droughts, forest fires, pests, and illegal logging, have collectively triggered a substantial reduction in forested areas. The study draws attention to significant events, such as the Khantai Mountains fires in 1990, 1996, and 1998, as well as recent deforestation incidents, which have negatively influenced forest ecosystems and natural resources. Utilizing data from the MODIS satellite, the research leverages long-term net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP) indicators based on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) trends. Remote sensing methodologies are employed to process multi-year data, facilitating the analysis and quantification of changes in vegetation. Incorporating the outcomes of a comprehensive nonlinear regression analysis, the study evaluates the relationship between NDVI and climatic variables, shedding light on how climate fluctuations affect vegetative transformations. The research extends beyond previous studies by encompassing the Khantai mountain range, where a detailed investigation had been lacking. This novel approach incorporates additional parameters, namely the Vegetation Index and soil moisture index, and employs simulation analysis to generate short-term predictions. The findings present a holistic understanding of the intricate interactions between climate change, NDVI fluctuations, and forest dynamics, ultimately contributing to the formulation of informed conservation strategies.